You can Predict Who Will Win the Presidency, 10 Months Ahead

This year the Presidential election can be predicted through two analyzing two factors: a) amount of social media engagement and b) the # of donors that have $$$ contributed to the campaign.  In today’s digital world, both of those can be quantitatively calculated and are based on numbers and facts. I’ve analyzed both of those and here’s why I prove Bernie Sanders will win the nomination.

Before I begin, let me state that this is not an endorsement nor a solicitation, this not based on his policy or anyone else’s policy.  It is all based on facts that you can all see for yourself.  You are also entitled to your own opinion, but you always have to make judgements on facts and the best information possible to you.  Nothing is 100% certain, but like a detective, you need to gather credible facts and think independently.  Once you have gathered enough credible facts that then paint a strong picture, then you are lead to believe a certain conclusion.

In today’s digital world, we have the tools to connect with people that were never before possible.  This year Facebook is 12 years old, and social media has existed through 4 different presidential races.  This year will be the 1st year that shows all that matters is social media, because social media represents the digital pulse of all of us – it represents all of us as individuals, as well as the community at large.   All that matters is authenticity – any millennial will tell you the don’t respond to advertisements, and in this year’s Presidential election it doesn’t matter how much money you’ve raised (i.e. Jeb Bush who has raised over $100 million, because the advertisements or endorsements you win in today’s digital climate).

What does a cute viral cat video and a horrific viral ISIS video have in common?  They are emotional, they are real, and they are authentic.  Delivering a real, emotional, authentic message is the way to succeed in today’s digital world and it’s the way to win an election.  Even the biggest and most successful companies have to deliver messages that are emotional, real, and authentic in order to stay relevant.  The traditional rules are gone – no more scripts and no more acting, being emotional, real, and authentic is the way to communicate.

Now let’s look at the 2016 Presidential race.  Bernie Sanders will win.  I am writing this article on February 11, 2016.  I understand this is written 10 months ahead of when we actually vote on November 8, 2016.

In order to win the Presidency, a candidate has to accomplish two things:

#1) Inspire people to vote for you
#2) Actually have those people vote for you on election day

I believe that in today’s world, the strongest predictor of #1 is that if you can have people Like and Follow and Share and Retweet you on social media, then you’ve proven you can inspire people to vote for you.

I believe that in today’s world, the strongest predictor of #2 is that if you can have people actually give you money and donate to you, then those people will actually vote for you on election day.

Bernie Sanders accomplishes #1 and #2 in a landslide.

There are also two major hurdles each candidate needs to accomplish:

A) Win the party nomination (either Democratic or Republication)
B) Win the general election

Let’s first examine A: a candidate first has to win the party nomination, so let’s compare Bernie Sanders against Hillary Clinton via social media data.

Bernie Sanders announced his campaign on May 26, 2015, about 9 months ago.  He was hardly known by the public before then – I would argue he was completely unknown.  Alternatively, Hillary Clinton has been in the public domain since 1992, when Bill Clinton won the Presidency, about 24 years, or 288 months ago.   Hillary’s name has been in the public domain for 32x longer that Bernie Sanders.

Here’s what that looks like in graphical terms.

graph

Now let’s look at the data (all of the analysis below is based on data from February 11, 2016, even though I predict that more time will continue to prove my theory).

Bernie Sanders: 2.8 million Facebook followers: https://www.facebook.com/berniesanders

bernie-facebook-profile
Hillary Clinton: 2.4 million Facebook followers: https://www.facebook.com/hillaryclinton

hillary-facebook

They are roughly the same, even though Hillary had 32x more time to accumulate followers and Bernie did all of his within 9 months.  Let’s examine two recent posts both candidates made on Facebook:

Bernie Sanders: 26K+ Likes, 4K+ shares

bernie-facebook-post

https://www.facebook.com/senatorsanders/posts/10154538882377908:0

Hillary Clinton: Only 12K Likes, 872 shares…

hillary-facebook-post

https://www.facebook.com/hillaryclinton/posts/1071507799572415:0

Bernie Sanders has a significant more Likes and Shares, people are responding to his message and helping to market and support him by Liking and Sharing his messages.  This is similar for all of Bernie Sanders vs. Hillary Clinton posts.

Now look at Twitter.

Bernie Sanders: https://twitter.com/berniesanders

bernie-twitter-profile
Hillary Clinton: https://twitter.com/hillaryclinton

hillary-twitter-profile

Hillary Clinton beats Bernie Sanders in the # of followers (5.4 million vs. 1.4 million), about 4x more followers; but I would argue Bernie Sanders is beating her on Twitter because of the amount of Likes and Retweets he accomplishes with his posts vs. her posts.

Here are two posts made by each candidate at the same time.

Bernie Sanders’ post has 1.3K retweets and 2.8K likes.

bernie-twitter

Hillary Clinton’s post has 1.1K retweets and 2.1K likes, which is less than Bernie Sanders’ post even though she has about 4x more followers.  His message has more engagement than hers.

hillary-twitter

Now let’s look at Instagram.

Bernie Sanders: https://instagram.com/berniesanders

bernie-instagram

Hillary Clinton: https://instagram.com/hillaryclinton

hillary-instagram

They have roughly the same Instagram following, but what is interesting about Instagram, is that we have access to all the public follower and posts data via MagiMetrics.com.  That’s also because both Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton started their Instagram accounts at the same time (Bernie Sanders’ first post was on 5/26/15 and Hillary Clinton’s first post was on 6/10/15).  I downloaded all of the posts of Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton and ran some analysis.  Here’s what I found.

From 1/1/16 to 2/8/16, the average Bernie Sanders post generated a significant amount of more Likes and roughly the same amount of comments than Hillary Clinton:

Bernie Sanders: 35,316 Likes and 892 Comments
Hillary Clinton: 21,720 Likes and 1,008 Comments.

People also shared more about Bernie Sanders than Hillary Clinton when analyzing their names as hashtag.

#BernieSanders: 221,406 posts: https://www.instagram.com/explore/tags/berniesanders/

bernie-instagram-tag
#HillaryClinton: 145,496 posts: https://www.instagram.com/explore/tags/hillaryclinton/

hillary-instagram-tag

Further, let’s look at Google Trends.

In the past couple months, Bernie Sanders is overtaking Hillary Clinton in Google’s search results. http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%2Fm%2F01_gbv%2C%20%2Fm%2F0d06m5&cmpt=q&tz=Etc%2FGMT%2B5

google-trends

There’s more and more.  Take a look at YouTube.  Bernie Sanders has more subscribers and his they both uploaded a main profile video 3 weeks ago.  The # of views of Bernie Sanders’ view is very significant

Bernie Sanders: 81K subscribers and his profile video has 3 million views: https://www.youtube.com/berniesanders

bernie-youtube
Hillary Clinton: 37K subscribers and her profile video only has 72K views: https://www.youtube.com/hillaryclinton

hillary-youtube

All this suggests 1 thing: Bernie Sanders will beat Hillary Clinton.  After he does that, he will then take on the Republican candidate.  Since Bernie Sanders has the highest amount of individuals that have financially contributed to his campaign, I predict all those contributors will actually go and vote for him.  That army of voters will outpace anyone else in the race.

This year will be the first year a Presidential election can be called 10 months in advance.  Don’t let the media or anyone else make you think otherwise, the data is out there you just have to go out and collect it.

Advertisements